Hollywood woke up to a power shift no one saw coming. As the nominations poured in, one film surged ahead with unstoppable momentum.

TheĀ Oscar nominationsĀ were announced Thursday morning, lavishing love on the season-long front-runners ā€œSinnersā€ and ā€œOne Battle After Another.ā€ Still, not every contender had cause for celebration. Here’s my analysis of the biggest snubs and surprises.

Seventy-five years afterĀ ā€œAll About Eveā€ set the Oscar recordĀ with 14 nominations — a total matched by only ā€œTitanicā€ and ā€œLa La Landā€ — a new high-water mark has finally been reached. The introduction of a casting Oscar helped giveĀ ā€œSinnersā€ the boost it neededĀ to earn a record-setting 16 nominations, including expected nods for best picture and the director Ryan Coogler as well as three acting ones for Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo. Still, ā€œSinnersā€ would have broken the record even without that new category, and the movie’s superlative strength distinguishes it as the only contender with a chance at beating ā€œOne Battle After Anotherā€ for best picture.

Sinners' makes history, setting Oscars nomination record - Athabasca, Barrhead & Westlock News

Sequel-itis is real. While the first ā€œWickedā€ conjured an impressive 10 Oscar nominations — for the leading lady Cynthia Erivo, the supporting actress Ariana Grande and best picture, among others — the follow-up ā€œWicked: For Goodā€ failed to defy gravity and was snubbed across the board. Mixed reviews and softer box-office returns didn’t help, though these days, even a well-received sequel like ā€œDune: Part Twoā€ can be met with a ā€œbeen there, done thatā€ shrug from Oscar voters. The days when a franchise like ā€œLord of the Ringsā€ could accrue more Oscar firepower with further installments appear long gone.

A woman with disheveled hair stands next to a building and looks warily to the distance.
Chase Infiniti in ā€œOne Battle After Another.ā€Credit…Warner Bros.

Awards strategists spend many billable hours debating whether to campaign actors in the lead or supporting categories, and this season’s most high-profile test case was Chase Infiniti, who played the daughter of Leonardo DiCaprio’s character in ā€œOne Battle After Another.ā€ She enters the film late enough that a supporting placement might be presumed, but this year’s best-actress field felt so thin that Warner Bros. pushed her as a lead, especially since it would clear space in the supporting category for the film’s standout, Teyana Taylor. Still, Infiniti probably split votes across both categories and ultimately landed in neither, much like the ā€œHamnetā€ star Paul Mescal, a snubbed supporting-actor contender who could have been plausibly positioned as a lead.

Ever since ā€œParasiteā€ (2020) took both the Palme d’Or and the best-picture Oscar, the relationship between the Cannes Film Festival and the Academy Awards has grown increasingly aligned: The last three Palme winners went on to earn director and picture nominations. Since they were all released by the hot indie studio Neon, there was every reason to think the distributor’s latest Cannes champ, ā€œIt Was Just An Accident,ā€ would keep the streak alive. But though that Iranian drama managed nominations for international feature and original screenplay, two other Neon films from Cannes — ā€œSentimental Valueā€ and ā€œThe Secret Agentā€ — edged it out of the best-picture race.

This year’s field of best-actor contenders was so strong that several snubs would have been shoo-ins nearly any other season. The ā€œBugoniaā€ star Jesse Plemons scored a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild and was probably just outside the final five, given how well his film did in other categories. ā€œTrain Dreamsā€ earned four nominations but nothing for Joel Edgerton, who’s in every scene. And several big stars who swanned through the fall film festivals — including Dwayne Johnson (ā€œThe Smashing Machineā€), George Clooney (ā€œJay Kellyā€) and Jeremy Allen White (ā€œSpringsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhereā€) — couldn’t keep that faltering momentum in the new year.

A woman in a sleeveless Hawaiian shirt and messy hair looks annoyed. Behind her is a man who’s out of focus.
Jennifer Lawrence in ā€œDie My Love.ā€Credit…Kimberly French/Mubi, via Associated Press

When she was 25, Jennifer Lawrence became the youngest actor to earn four Oscar nominations, a remarkable run that included her win for ā€œSilver Linings Playbook.ā€ But Lawrence hasn’t scored another nomination since, and even her well-reviewed performance as a frustrated new mother in ā€œDie My Loveā€ couldn’t return her to past heights. Perhaps Martin Scorsese’s ā€œWhat Happens at Night,ā€ which she’ll film this year alongside Leonardo DiCaprio, will bring her back to Oscar voters’ attention.

Though the best-actress category left out the likes of Lawrence, Infiniti, Erivo and ā€œThe Testament of Ann Leeā€ star Amanda Seyfried, one nominee who surged at the right time wasĀ Kate Hudson, nominated for singing Neil Diamond covers alongside Hugh Jackman in ā€œSong Sung Blue.ā€ The well-connected actress has been working it all season, drawing Oscar-winning stars like DiCaprio and Al Pacino to her screenings. The film’s modest but respectable box-office showing helped, too: Even non-industry moviegoers have been eager to talk about her performance with me in recent weeks.

Oscar voters love Guillermo del Toro, a former best-director winner for ā€œThe Shape of Water.ā€ Anyone who has heard him speak passionately about his movies at Q. and A’s. comes out ready to cast a vote, though that generosity didn’t extend to the man himself this year: Despite earning nine nominations, ā€œFrankensteinā€ didn’t manage a director nod. (Instead, del Toro’s presumed place in the lineup was taken by the ā€œSentimental Valueā€ director Joachim Trier). Could the film’s snub in the visual-effects category have been a clue that though voters adore del Toro, they do have some quibbles?

As the best-picture field started to come together over the last few weeks, nine nominees seemed all but certain, with a free-for-all for the 10th slot. Could it go to ā€œWeapons,ā€ a big hit featuring the supporting-actress contender Amy Madigan? Maybe ā€œBlue Moon,ā€ which managed nominations for its screenplay and star, Ethan Hawke? Nope: In the end, Oscar voters shrugged and nominated the cars-go-vroom vehicle ā€œF1,ā€ which managed a Producers Guild nod but otherwise failed to earn a single above-the-line nomination all season. What are we doing here, guys? In a world where ā€œIt Was Just An Accidentā€ couldn’t make it into best picture, we’re nominating ā€œF1,ā€ a silly race-car movie that boasts little besides a fun Tate McRae song and countless shirtless shots of star Brad Pitt? It’s time to wave the red flag.

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