Hollywood woke up to a power shift no one saw coming. As the nominations poured in, one film surged ahead with unstoppable momentum.
TheĀ Oscar nominationsĀ were announced Thursday morning, lavishing love on the season-long front-runners āSinnersā and āOne Battle After Another.ā Still, not every contender had cause for celebration. Hereās my analysis of the biggest snubs and surprises.
āSinnersā hits a historic high
Seventy-five years afterĀ āAll About Eveā set the Oscar recordĀ with 14 nominations ā a total matched by only āTitanicā and āLa La Landā ā a new high-water mark has finally been reached. The introduction of a casting Oscar helped giveĀ āSinnersā the boost it neededĀ to earn a record-setting 16 nominations, including expected nods for best picture and the director Ryan Coogler as well as three acting ones for Michael B. Jordan, Wunmi Mosaku and Delroy Lindo. Still, āSinnersā would have broken the record even without that new category, and the movieās superlative strength distinguishes it as the only contender with a chance at beating āOne Battle After Anotherā for best picture.
āWickedā underperforms

Sequel-itis is real. While the first āWickedā conjured an impressive 10 Oscar nominations ā for the leading lady Cynthia Erivo, the supporting actress Ariana Grande and best picture, among others ā the follow-up āWicked: For Goodā failed to defy gravity and was snubbed across the board. Mixed reviews and softer box-office returns didnāt help, though these days, even a well-received sequel like āDune: Part Twoā can be met with a ābeen there, done thatā shrug from Oscar voters. The days when a franchise like āLord of the Ringsā could accrue more Oscar firepower with further installments appear long gone.
āOne Battle After Anotherā loses a fight

Awards strategists spend many billable hours debating whether to campaign actors in the lead or supporting categories, and this seasonās most high-profile test case was Chase Infiniti, who played the daughter of Leonardo DiCaprioās character in āOne Battle After Another.ā She enters the film late enough that a supporting placement might be presumed, but this yearās best-actress field felt so thin that Warner Bros. pushed her as a lead, especially since it would clear space in the supporting category for the filmās standout, Teyana Taylor. Still, Infiniti probably split votes across both categories and ultimately landed in neither, much like the āHamnetā star Paul Mescal, a snubbed supporting-actor contender who could have been plausibly positioned as a lead.
A Palme winner peters out
Ever since āParasiteā (2020) took both the Palme dāOr and the best-picture Oscar, the relationship between the Cannes Film Festival and the Academy Awards has grown increasingly aligned: The last three Palme winners went on to earn director and picture nominations. Since they were all released by the hot indie studio Neon, there was every reason to think the distributorās latest Cannes champ, āIt Was Just An Accident,ā would keep the streak alive. But though that Iranian drama managed nominations for international feature and original screenplay, two other Neon films from Cannes ā āSentimental Valueā and āThe Secret Agentā ā edged it out of the best-picture race.
The best actor race is a bloodbath
This yearās field of best-actor contenders was so strong that several snubs would have been shoo-ins nearly any other season. The āBugoniaā star Jesse Plemons scored a nomination from the Screen Actors Guild and was probably just outside the final five, given how well his film did in other categories. āTrain Dreamsā earned four nominations but nothing for Joel Edgerton, whoās in every scene. And several big stars who swanned through the fall film festivals ā including Dwayne Johnson (āThe Smashing Machineā), George Clooney (āJay Kellyā) and Jeremy Allen White (āSpringsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhereā) ā couldnāt keep that faltering momentum in the new year.
An Oscar favorite is overlooked

When she was 25, Jennifer Lawrence became the youngest actor to earn four Oscar nominations, a remarkable run that included her win for āSilver Linings Playbook.ā But Lawrence hasnāt scored another nomination since, and even her well-reviewed performance as a frustrated new mother in āDie My Loveā couldnāt return her to past heights. Perhaps Martin Scorseseās āWhat Happens at Night,ā which sheāll film this year alongside Leonardo DiCaprio, will bring her back to Oscar votersā attention.
Kate Hudson has something to sing about
Though the best-actress category left out the likes of Lawrence, Infiniti, Erivo and āThe Testament of Ann Leeā star Amanda Seyfried, one nominee who surged at the right time wasĀ Kate Hudson, nominated for singing Neil Diamond covers alongside Hugh Jackman in āSong Sung Blue.ā The well-connected actress has been working it all season, drawing Oscar-winning stars like DiCaprio and Al Pacino to her screenings. The filmās modest but respectable box-office showing helped, too: Even non-industry moviegoers have been eager to talk about her performance with me in recent weeks.
Guillermo del Toro misses
Oscar voters love Guillermo del Toro, a former best-director winner for āThe Shape of Water.ā Anyone who has heard him speak passionately about his movies at Q. and Aās. comes out ready to cast a vote, though that generosity didnāt extend to the man himself this year: Despite earning nine nominations, āFrankensteinā didnāt manage a director nod. (Instead, del Toroās presumed place in the lineup was taken by the āSentimental Valueā director Joachim Trier). Could the filmās snub in the visual-effects category have been a clue that though voters adore del Toro, they do have some quibbles?
āF1ā comes from behind
As the best-picture field started to come together over the last few weeks, nine nominees seemed all but certain, with a free-for-all for the 10th slot. Could it go to āWeapons,ā a big hit featuring the supporting-actress contender Amy Madigan? Maybe āBlue Moon,ā which managed nominations for its screenplay and star, Ethan Hawke? Nope: In the end, Oscar voters shrugged and nominated the cars-go-vroom vehicle āF1,ā which managed a Producers Guild nod but otherwise failed to earn a single above-the-line nomination all season. What are we doing here, guys? In a world where āIt Was Just An Accidentā couldnāt make it into best picture, weāre nominating āF1,ā a silly race-car movie that boasts little besides a fun Tate McRae song and countless shirtless shots of star Brad Pitt? Itās time to wave the red flag.